Among various therapeutic areas that many pharmaceutical companies are marketing their products, there are hot / high growth ones, like oncology, and there are areas that have turned out to be graveyards for new drugs.
unfortunately – many drugs that have primary care angle have generally failed to launch successfully and women’s health has been one of them.
There have been many – including Orilissa – for treatment of endometriosis – highly painful episodes and investors initially had some expectations.
There was skepticism, but investors thought it may be different this time, because it was Abbvie that was selling the product.
Abbvie has one of the most powerful marketing organizations that has created multiple blockbusters.
However, even Abbvie could not launch the product well – now ABBV does not even highlight Orilissa – let alone the entire women’s health segment.
Women’s health has historically been tough area to launch – they often look like they are highly attractive with large TAM – with millions of patients.
However, the drugs that were launched never gained traction because the drugs are often priced too high for the population and therefore PAYORS NEVER APPROVE THESE PRODUCTS
In a market with “millions” of patients, Orgovyx only generates ~800 4-week moving average scripts in its 6th month of launch.
AND NOW ASTELLAS IS NOW FOLLOWING THE FOOTSTEPS – EXCEPT THEY ARE HYPING THE MARKET POTENTIAL.
Astellas is taking about MILLIONS OF ELIGIBLE PATIENTS (JUST LIKE MYOVANT DID) AND ARE PROJECTING JPY 300-500 BN YEN (US$2.5-4BN)
WHY WOULD ASTELLAS BE DOING THIS?
IT IS BECAUSE THEY ARE HIGHLY EXPOSED TO XTANDI AND THEY NEED TO SHOW INVESTORS THAT THERE IS FUTURE AFTER XTANDI LOSES PATENT EXCLUSIVITY IN 2027.
BIOTECH IS USUALLY ABOUT INVESTING FOR THE LONG HAUL AND IT IS ABOUT DREAMING THE DREAM.
IT IS OUR JOB AS INVESTORS TO MAKE OUR OWN JUDGMENT RATHER THAN TAKE COMPANY’S PROJECTIONS FOR GRANTED.
ONE MORE THING TO ADD ON ASTELLAS – GOOD LUCK WITH KEEPING SG&A FLAT IN THIS WORLD OF HYPERINFLATION
*Not investment advice
