My wife was away last weekend – this gave me some time to do something that my wife does not like to do.. and that is…
VISITING LOCAL WATCH SHOPS!!!!
I love visiting local watch stores because obviously I love watches as collectibles and investments.
As a watch collector, I love seeing new models that come out / trying them on – they are amazing toys that I adore.
As a watch investors, I love to keep track of what is going on in the market – WHAT IS HOT THESE DAYS AND WHAT IS NOT, WHAT ARE THE LATEST TRENDS.
I always learn something new about the latest trends every time I go, and this time I learned a new thing – and that is
THE GAP BETWEEN THE “HAVES/DESIRED” AND THE “HAVE-NOTS/NOT DESIRED” IS WIDER THAN EVER.
I went to a MAJOR watch store in San Francisco and below are my key takeaways.
FIRST – ALL THE POPULAR MODELS HAVE BECOME IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
Patek, Vacheron, and Lange have become as scarce as Rolex these days. The cases are completely empty (there were a few in December). The store is no longer taking deposits because they don’t know when they are going to get those watches next time. The specific store told me they have not received a SINGLE SHIPMENT OF Vacheron Constantin since October.
All the supply chain, social media hype, and maybe renewed interest in watches from current generation – all are driving the mismatch between supply and demand for the most desired brands.
Rolex obviously remains the hardest brand / watches to get.
SECOND – SECOND TIER BRANDS ARE TRYING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS VACCUM LEFT BEHIND BUT THOSE WATCHES ARE FULLY STOCKED
JLC, IWC, Nomos, or Panerai – all of them are FULLY STOCKED – THE CONTRAST IS UNREAL- PATEK, VACHERON, AND LANGE SECTIONS ARE COMPLETELY EMPTY. WHILE THE OTHER SECTION OF THE STORE WITH JLC, IWC, NOMOS, OR PANERAI ARE COMPLETELY FULL.
For rational minds, this disparity do not make sense because –
JLC COULD BE VIEWED AS THE TECHNOLOGICALLY SUPERIOR BRAND
Nomos is always viewed as amazing value watch
IWC is viewed as the PILOT WATCH BRAND
Yet, they are pumping out watches while customers aren’t clamoring for them.
For luxury brands, perception is very important – EASY TO GET PRODUCTS ARE JUST NOT APPEALLING.
As an investment, they are terrible products to buy at store because you lose value the moment you pay for the watch.
THE CLEAR TREND IS THAT THE GAP IS ONLY WIDENING AS PEOPLE WANT WATCHES THAT ARE MORE DESIRED MORE AND MORE – THIS CREATES A SELF-REINFORCING CYCLE THAT BENEFITS THOSE AT THE TOP – ROLEX, VACHERON, LANGE, PATEK.
As you go out for your next watch, your personal taste should be absolute priority but this is something that you should think about – your watch journey may require you to re-sell that watch to buy another one.
PREMIUM ASSETS WILL TEND TO CONTINUE TO TRADE AT PREMIUM PRICE – PARTICULARLY IN AN INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT – THAT IS FOR STOCKS, REAL ESTATE, OR WATCHES.
HAPPY WATCH COLLECTING/INVESTING!
*not investment advice
